Ten Social Media Predictions for 2012
Looking Back On Social Media In 2011
Before looking forward to my social media predictions for next year, let's reflect on what happened in 2011.
In summary, 2011 was an interesting and eventful year for social media. Most notably for those of a business disposition, it saw the continued demise of MySpace and the IPOs (initial public offerings) of social gaming firm Zynga and LinkedIn.
Perhaps more importantly, we saw the Arab Spring and London Riots, which reportedly was to a large extent organized/initiated - for better, or worse - through Twitter, Facebook and Blackberry Messenger.
Back in December 2010 it would have been easy to have predicted the continued demise of MySpace and IPOs of Zynga as well as LinkedIn, but far harder to have predicted the London riots and political change emerging due to social media.
Without further delay, here are my top 10 social media & Facebook predictions for 2012:
1. Facebook announces its Stock Market Listing for 2013
Towards the end of 2012, I expect Facebook to announce its IPO - it's stock market listing. With the financial crisis finally starting to resolve itself and technology socks finding favor with investors - the current Facebook owners decide that it's time to cash out. Hundreds await to convert their paper fortunes into real American dollars.
2. Governments "dis" like Facebook
Facebook finds itself locked out from an increasing number of countries. Continuing current trends, Facebook becomes increasingly blocked and slowed down due. For emerging economies with repressive regimes, Facebook continues to be a hot bed of discontent and information dissemination tool.
That said, to everyone's surprise the new leader of North Korea "The Great Successor" get's a Facebook profile. North Koreas army elite aren't happy. Okay, maybe I'm being just a "tad" zealous with this prediction!
3. Microsoft Diggs Facebook Search Love
In contrast to the prediction in my last paragraph, I think this one is all but guaranteed.
You're going to see an increasing amount of Facebook integration in Microsoft's services, and vice versa. In particularly, I think you're going to find Facebook distributing Microsoft's "Bing" toolbar in some form - possibly a white label rebrand with deep functionality integration within the toolbar. Bing, as a result, starts to capture an increasing amount of Western European and US search traffic.
Microsoft, as part of this license agreement, starts to use your Facebook data for its advertising services. Microsoft's advertising division posts record profits as a result.
4. Twitter Use Starts To Decline
Shock, horror! I'm bolding predicting that Twitter use trends are going to change. In 2012, Twitter posting becomes the preserve of the rich, famous, and niche celebs. That said, businesses will increasingly use tweets to push deals and product launches.
Like blogging, there becomes a large silent majority in the "long tail" and a small vocal minority with a lot of "followers." So whilst Twitter sign ups starts to dry up, and normal users start to post less - Twitter page views increase due to large follower quantities.
As a result, I'd expect you to find an increasing amount of advertising placed around tweets.
5. Facebook Redesign The Timeline After User Backlash
People don't like change. Facebook users, in particular, don't like change.
You may have noticed the media bandwagon lately hyping up Facebook's new Timeline. Facebook would be making a big mistake if they start believing in the myth that they're infallible.
Sure, the timeline looks great. And it is true that functionality wise, it's an autobiography in the making. However, if Facebook don't make critical changes, I think that Facebook could be writing its own finale autobiography about what went wrong sooner rather than later.
There are many problems with the current design, however, most importantly:
- Content Value Area To Small - Most of the interactive posts that you/your friends have written is below the browser fold (you have to scroll to see the content). This is a serious design flaw.
- New Header Bar Too Large - The background to your Facebook picture is now far too large, it needs to be reduced by 66% in height in order to increase the space for the content on your profile.
- Timeline Position - The timeline position is wasted space, it would be better off on the left hand side with more content - possibly your friend information on the right hand side.
- Facebook Activity - Previous activity should still be first, even if it's not so interesting. This intelligent sorting, will make many less active viewers profiles less interesting.
- Interaction Needs Greater Prominence - Interaction with friends and apps needs to have greater prominence in order to stay relevant to a users friends and family. If it's not interesting, it's boring. Speaking of boring, the space of who someone is and where someone is from takes up the line of sight of the page (middle of the page) - useful for someone looking for a job, not so useful if you're on Facebook to interact with your friends. Your "real" friends will know who you are, where you're from and what you do for a living.
To the Facebook team: If you follow my suggestion's Facebook, a tip of the hat (acknowledgement) would be nice :).
5. Less Bedroom Developer Lovin'
Facebook favors integration with big business. It's a fact. Facebook are far more accommodating on their platform for sites with large traffic and meaningful interaction
